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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Grand Canyon

Conference:WAC
Expected RPI:156.0
Current RPI:156
Expected SOS:270
Current SOS:270
Current Record:21-11
Expected Record:21-11
Current Conf Record:11-6
Expected Conf Record:11-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:16-2
Current OOC Record:10-5
Expected OOC Record:10-5
Expected OOC RPI:222
Expected OOC SOS:328



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-11156.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Grand Canyon.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Florida A&M (332.0)MEACH67-51W100%0.0
11-13Robert Morris (196.0)NECH75-61W100%0.0
11-18Little Rock (308.0)SBH76-51W100%0.0
11-20Norfolk St. (266.0)MEACH85-60W100%0.0
11-25San Diego (143.0)WCCH62-72L0%0.0
12-2UC Riverside (300.0)BWH68-56W100%0.0
12-5St. John's (92.0)BEN60-68L0%0.0
12-9Grambling St. (249.0)SWACH87-53W100%0.0
12-11North Carolina Central (279.0)MEACH64-59W100%0.0
12-13Boise St. (50.0)MWCA85-80L0%0.0
12-18Mississippi Valley St. (349.0)SWACH71-38W100%0.0
12-21Longwood (337.0)BSthH86-56W100%0.0
12-23Louisville (38.0)ACCA74-56L0%0.0
12-27Morgan St. (327.0)MEACN100-74W100%0.0
12-30Illinois (181.0)B10A62-58L0%0.0
1-6Seattle (165.0)WACA57-73W100%0.0
1-11New Mexico St. (35.0)WACH59-70L0%0.0
1-13UT Rio Grande Valley (229.0)WACH84-71W100%0.0
1-18Chicago St. (335.0)WACA58-86W100%0.0
1-20UMKC (256.0)WACA69-86W100%0.0
1-27Utah Valley (83.0)WACA68-56L0%0.0
2-1UMKC (256.0)WACH79-62W100%0.0
2-3Chicago St. (335.0)WACH89-55W100%0.0
2-8UT Rio Grande Valley (229.0)WACA83-81L0%0.0
2-10New Mexico St. (35.0)WACA74-70L0%0.0
2-17Cal St. Bakersfield (220.0)WACA71-58L0%0.0
2-22Seattle (165.0)WACH76-64W100%0.0
2-24Utah Valley (83.0)WACH60-59W100%0.0
3-3Cal St. Bakersfield (220.0)WACH81-68W100%0.0
3-8UMKC (256.0)WACN77-74W100%0.0
3-9Utah Valley (83.0)WACN60-75W100%0.0
3-10New Mexico St. (35.0)WACN72-58L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Grand Canyon's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Grand Canyon's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Grand Canyon.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Grand CanyonWAC26.5326.5364.2964.297.587.58
New Mexico St.WAC5.595.5981.4881.483.523.52
Utah ValleyWAC5.525.5269.2369.232.122.12
UMKCWAC5.435.4330.7730.77-2.09-2.09
SeattleWAC4.114.1160.7160.710.880.88
Chicago St.WAC4.014.013.573.57-3.72-3.72
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC4.014.0142.8642.86-0.57-0.57
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC4.004.0032.0032.00-1.44-1.44
San DiegoWCC1.721.7255.1755.170.180.18
Grambling St.SWAC1.721.7255.1755.170.180.18
Norfolk St.MEAC1.711.7144.8344.83-0.18-0.18
UC RiversideBW1.701.7025.0025.00-0.85-0.85
IllinoisB101.691.6940.0040.00-0.34-0.34
North Carolina CentralMEAC1.691.6953.3353.330.110.11
Morgan St.MEAC1.691.6937.9337.93-0.41-0.41
Florida A&MMEAC1.671.6725.0025.00-0.83-0.83
Robert MorrisNEC1.641.6450.0050.000.000.00
Little RockSB1.641.6420.6920.69-0.96-0.96
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC1.611.6112.9012.90-1.20-1.20
LongwoodBSth1.591.5913.7913.79-1.15-1.15
Boise St.MWC1.561.5672.4172.410.700.70
LouisvilleACC1.561.5659.3859.380.290.29
St. John'sBE1.561.5645.1645.16-0.15-0.15
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.250.2553.3353.330.020.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.250.2561.2961.290.060.06
HamptonMEAC0.230.2351.6151.610.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.220.2262.0762.070.050.05
New MexicoMWC0.210.2154.5554.550.020.02
UC IrvineBW0.180.1848.4848.48-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.180.1870.5970.590.080.08
Saint Mary'sWCC0.180.1884.8584.850.130.13
UTEPCUSA0.180.1833.3333.33-0.06-0.06
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.180.1845.4545.45-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.180.1843.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.180.186.676.67-0.15-0.15
SouthernSWAC0.170.1741.9441.94-0.03-0.03
HowardMEAC0.170.1725.8125.81-0.08-0.08
UC DavisBW0.160.1666.6766.670.050.05
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.160.1684.3884.380.110.11
South Carolina St.MEAC0.150.1526.6726.67-0.07-0.07
Coppin St.MEAC0.150.1515.6215.62-0.10-0.10
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.150.1516.6716.67-0.10-0.10
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.140.1453.3353.330.010.01
HawaiiBW0.130.1353.5753.570.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.130.1342.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.130.1327.5927.59-0.06-0.06
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.130.1332.2632.26-0.05-0.05
PortlandWCC0.130.1324.1424.14-0.07-0.07
DukeACC0.130.1378.7978.790.070.07
IowaB100.130.1342.4242.42-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
Miami FLACC0.130.1370.9770.970.050.05
Georgia TechACC0.130.1340.6240.62-0.02-0.02
UNLVMWC0.130.1360.6160.610.030.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
IdahoBSky0.120.1268.9768.970.040.04
ManhattanMAAC0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
South DakotaSum0.110.1173.3373.330.050.05
Loyola MarymountWCC0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
KentuckySEC0.100.1070.5970.590.040.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.100.1060.7160.710.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.100.1027.5927.59-0.05-0.05
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.100.1030.7730.77-0.04-0.04
Utah St.MWC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.100.1082.3582.350.070.07
Alabama A&MSWAC0.100.109.689.68-0.08-0.08
Alabama St.SWAC0.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
Alcorn St.SWAC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
MarquetteBE0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.1044.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.100.1057.1457.140.010.01
DelawareCAA0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.080.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
Incarnate WordSlnd0.080.0812.5012.50-0.06-0.06
Kansas St.B120.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
North DakotaBSky0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
PennIvy0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0880.0080.000.050.05
USC UpstateASun0.080.0810.7110.71-0.06-0.06
UTSACUSA0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
Wichita St.Amer0.080.0878.1278.120.050.05
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.080.0814.2914.29-0.06-0.06
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.080.0870.0070.000.030.03
Air ForceMWC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
PacificWCC0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.080.0816.1316.13-0.05-0.05
Appalachian St.SB0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
DavidsonA100.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
High PointBSth0.080.0840.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
San Diego St.MWC0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
SMUAmer0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
Texas St.SB0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
USCP120.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
NorthwesternB100.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Notre DameACC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
George MasonA100.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
IndianaB100.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
DePaulBE0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
XavierBE0.070.0784.8584.850.050.05
Seton HallBE0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
BryantNEC0.070.079.689.68-0.06-0.06
Florida St.ACC0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
VirginiaACC0.070.0793.9493.940.060.06
WagnerNEC0.070.0770.0070.000.030.03
ArizonaP120.060.0679.4179.410.030.03
ArkansasSEC0.060.0667.6567.650.020.02
LamarSlnd0.060.0653.5753.570.000.00
UCLAP120.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Cal PolyBW0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
BelmontOVC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
CampbellBSth0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
DrakeMVC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
GonzagaWCC0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
NevadaMWC0.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
RiceCUSA0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
Saint LouisA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
UMBCAE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
WashingtonP120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Washington St.P120.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
WinthropBSth0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
WyomingMWC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Arizona St.P120.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Michigan St.B100.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
RutgersB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
MissouriSEC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
CreightonBE0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
DuquesneA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
PittsburghACC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
SienaMAAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
MontanaBSky0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
ValparaisoMVC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Iowa St.B120.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
NavyPat0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
TroySB0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
VCUA100.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
VMISC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
MarylandB100.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0332.0032.00-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
AkronMAC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
SamfordSC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
UCFAmer0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
UtahP120.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
AlbanyAE0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
ClemsonACC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
DrexelCAA0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.020.0282.7682.760.020.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.020.0271.4371.430.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
SyracuseACC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
TexasB120.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01